This study presents period life tables by sex for decennial years 1900 through 2000 based on United States and Medicare data, and for decennial years 2010 through 2100 reflecting projected mortality.Ī cohort, or generation, life table is based on, or represents, mortality experience over the entire lifetime of a cohort of persons born during a relatively short period of time, usually one year. If the experience study is limited to short periods of time, the resulting rates will be more uniformly representative of the entire period. Such tables are useful in analyzing changes in the mortality experienced by a population through time. Life tables based directly on population data are generally constructed as period life tables because death and population data are most readily available on a time period basis. Each type of table can be constructed either based on actual population data or on expected future experience.Ī period life table is based on, or represents, the mortality experience of an entire population during a relatively short period of time, usually one to three years. Two basic types of life tables are presented in this study, period-based tables and cohort-based tables. Although a life table does not give mortality at non-integral ages or for non-integral durations, as can be obtained from a mathematical formula, acceptable methods for estimating such values are well known. For this study, functions in the life table can be generated from the q x, where q x is the probability of death within a year of a person aged x. These probabilities are generally based on tabulations of deaths in a given population and estimates of the size of that population. Today, mortality is most commonly represented in the form of a life table, which gives probabilities of death within one year at each exact integral age. However, as actual data have become more abundant and more reliable, the use of approximate analytical methods have become less necessary and acceptable. In the past, analytical methods (such as the Gompertz, Makeham, or logistic curves) satisfied this criterion approximately over a broad range of ages. In this study, the life tables are used to examine the mortality changes in the Social Security population over time.Īn ideal representation of human mortality would provide a measure of the rate of death occurring at specified ages over specified periods of time.
These tables supersede those published in Actuarial Study Number 116, which were used in the preparation of the 2002 Annual ReportsĪ life table is a concise way of showing the probabilities of a member of a particular population living to or dying at a particular age. Tables on both period and cohort bases are included. Mortality rates are presented in this study in the context of life tables, which are commonly used by actuaries and demographers. These projections were also used in estimating the future financial status of the Hospital Insurance (HI) and Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) programs as described in the 2005 Annual Report of the Medicare Board of Trustees. All mortality projections presented in this study are from the intermediate projections of the 2005 Annual Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees. The intermediate projections reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience. These projections are based on three different sets of assumptions about future death rates. For the 2005 Trustees Report, three separate projectionsintermediate, low cost, high costwere prepared. One of the essential components of population projections is a projection of mortality, which is the subject of this study. To produce these financial estimates, projections of the population in the Social Security coverage area are needed. These estimates illustrate possible scenarios of the future financial position of the OASDI program, under present law, and thus are valuable in the policy making process for the program.
Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100Įach year, estimates of future income and expenditures of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program are presented to the Congress in the Annual Report of the Board of Trustees.
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